Archive for the 'Exogenous Variables' Category

About exogenous variables that effect capital markets, such as demographics, war, leadership, economic theory, and new technology …

Individual investors push stock prices up in Q2 2009

The Federal Reserve flow of funds accounts for US Households (Table F.100) clearly reveal the forces that drove the recovery in equity prices in the first half of 2009. By comparing the flow of funds in the year 2007 (at the top of the bubble), with the flows in Q2 2009, a dramatic shift in investor […]

The “End of the Stock Buyback Era” as of Q2 2009

The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Accounts for Q2 2009 showed a positive net issuance of Non-farm Non-financial Corporate Equities at an annual rate of $88 billion (Table F.102). At the same time, cash dividends of this sector fell 22.5%, from the annual rate of $465.8 billion in 2006, to only $360.7 billion in Q2 […]

Probability of war between Israel and Iran in 2010

The Obama administration has virtually assured the Iranians that they can develop a nuclear bomb and that the US and the rest of the world will do nothing about it. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vilified Israel before the United Nations on September 23, 2009, claiming that the Holocaust was the […]

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