Deporting Illegal Immigrants: Are We Nuts?
No one knows for sure the facts on illegal immigrants living in the United States.
Nevertheless, lets start with one common estimate of the illegal population: 12 million persons.
Now, some have suggested that the U.S. deport these twelve million people, sending them back to their land of birth.
Lets assume that illegal immigrants will not pay any of the costs of this mass deportation, which would fall upon U.S. taxpayers.
What would be the economic consequences of mass deportation of 12 million illegal immigrants?
Making Some Assumptions
Lets guess that the average annual earnings of an illegal immigrant is $12,000. That suggests that total annual earnings of the illegal population might be about $144 billion.
This amounts to about 1.4% of total household income in the U.S. in 2006. So the first cost of deporting 12 million people would be a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product, which would have a negative impact on almost everyone who works for a living in the private sector.
Although, many claim that illegal immigrants don’t ‘pay their fair share’ of taxes, the fact is that they have to eat and buy clothes and live somewhere and therefore they do indeed pay sales taxes and, indirectly or indirectly, property taxes on the places they stay. As far as income taxes go, they are not much different than the large segment of the legal population who pay no income taxes at all.
Moreover, many illegal immigrants are working with fake social security numbers and working at places that discount social security taxes, from which they will never benefit.
Anyway, we might assume that without the contribution of illegal immigrants, tax receipts at state and federal level would be at least $5 billion less.
The Practicality of Mass Deportation
Lets say, however, that American voters do conclude that its worth the decline in GDP, sales taxes, and property values to ‘cleanse’ America of these people, and that ‘we the people’ decide to adopt a ‘final solution’ for illegal immigrants: mass deportation.
What would this involve?
To send 12 million people abroad by 747 would require about 30,000 flights. Assuming an average cost of $1,000 per air ticket (St. Louis to Mexico City), the cost of this air transport would be about $12 billion.
To deport 12 million people by Greyhound bus would be cheaper, but would still require 240,000 bus loads, assuming everyone comes from Mexico, which they don’t.
If all deportees resisted and were sent to jail, this would require accommodations to hold more than five times the number of inmates currently housed in state and federal prisons, assuming that the prisons could also be outfitted to handle the influx of women and children. This would probably cost at least $12,000 per person per year to keep them in prison, or about $144 billion.
If the ACLU has anything to say about it, each of these 12 million deportees would have the right to counsel and a fair trail. This would require at least two or three million public defenders and a vast increase in the number of judges and court personnel.
Although the popular media doesn’t give this impression, a large number of illegal immigrants come from places that do not border on the U.S., like Brazil, Columbia, Argentina, Indonesia, and so forth. The cost of sending these people back home would be considerably more expensive and would be complicated by diplomatic problems.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that mass deportation couldn’t be done. In America, we can do anything we put our minds to.
It would take a high level of logistic planning, which as seen in Hurricane Katrina, doesn’t seem to be a strong point of the government sector.
In any event, my ball park estimate of the cost of deporting illegal immigrants would be somewhere north of $200 billion dollars — in the first year.
Are we nuts?
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No we are not nuts! In any other country it would not have been allowed to get this bad. If they want to be here so badly then they need to become full fledged Americans. If they can not afford the cost of legally becoming American then there should be assistance available to help them. As for the cost of deportation, seize their cash and property tp pay for at least part of the expense of sending them back home.
I am sure some of the illegals are nice people. I know many of them are hard working. To some degree my heart goes out to the hard working nice ones, but the word “illegal” means “against the law”. A crime is a crime is a crime.
There has to be some solution to this problem where both illegals can be made legal citizins, we can avoid expensive deportation and all parties can be happy.
Our country is in big debt, and the sudden increase in taxes collected from 12 million illegal people becoming legal would help. Oh it wouldn’t solve the entire problem, nothing will at this point. But it would help.
Bottom Line: Make these people legal residents with voting rights and tax paying ability OR be prepared to face the expense of sending them home.
Posted by Susan M. on October 21st, 2006 at 11:07 pm.
Compare the number of cases that these bureaucrats are capable of handling in a year with the number of illegal immigrants in the US and the millions of voters in the Democratic party who oppose mass deportation and who therefore favor these bureaucratic barriers.
Although the ‘deport them all’ way of thinking is appealing to native born xenophobes, and although there is no question that it is not ‘right’ that the situation has been allowed to get out of hand, the practicalities of cost, politics, and entrenched legal barriers make the ‘mass deportation solution’ a matter of political rhetoric rather than a practical social remedy.
Posted by John Schroy on October 22nd, 2006 at 6:41 am.
Posted by michelle on November 25th, 2007 at 9:41 am.
Posted by judy on January 7th, 2008 at 8:37 pm.
are u missing a damn screw!!!
first of all u seem to be tramatized about sum-thing that has happened to u…wut makes u think all immigrants are mexican???
immigrants are paying taxes and social security the same exact way you are…
im pretty sure that yur great-great-great grandfather was’nt born here…i wonder if he got shot after the third try???
Posted by mirella on January 11th, 2008 at 1:14 am.
On the one hand you have the Law that must be kept. If anyone thinks that illegal immigration continues to grow because congress CAN’T stop it, they are WRONG. Consider this quote: “The reason we do not have secure borders is because of an insatiable demand for cheap labor,” says Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo. In other words, congress has the law, but refuses to enforce it because it benefits our economy….or so they think so.
In contrast, there is a valid argument that illegal immigration does nothing more for our economy than lower wages. Are there jobs that American citizens won’t do? Yes! Are there jobs that American citizens won’t do for a decent wage? No! Thus the influx of illegal immigrants does not necesarilly mean that they will fill jobs that Americans refuse to fill, rather they takes jobs for much less pay that otherwise the employer would have had to pay a higher wage.
Does more jobs for less pay equal better economy or does it simply mean greater earnings for employers who provide jobs to illegal immigrants.
Now, what about practicality and human dignity. It is not practicle for the United States Government to “purge” our country of the illegal immigrants found herein. Such a purging would inherently carry hints of Nazi Germany, not to mention the astrinomical cost to carry it out. In such a case, our government would be tearing families apart (i.e. marraiges of illegal immigrants to perminant residents). Furthermore, the persicution of illegal immigrants does nothing more than force them more and more underground. The result is an increased multiplicity of illegal immigrant activity out of public view (i.e. forgery of immigration and citizenship documents).
I think everyone agrees that it is a problem that must be fixed. amnesty supporters cite the forcing of illegals “underground”. Those who oppose amnesty cite that illegal activity is still illegal, no matter how you look at it.
They are both correct, however, if something is to be done about it, the solution must be practical. I has to be something that CAN ACTUALLY BE DONE. In my opinion, the only real solution would be to provide a difinitive way for illegal immigrants already living here to obtain naturalization and congress MUST finally let go of their double standard by upholding the laws and securing our borders by whatever means necessary.
Posted by James on February 5th, 2008 at 3:58 pm.
Posted by Jae on August 2nd, 2008 at 8:46 pm.